The study estimated that out of the $250 billion in Chinese exports subject to US tariffs, some 80 percent would be captured by firms in other countries, while 12 percent would be retained by Chinese firms and only six percent would be captured by USA firms.
"I don't think it would be productive to speculate on the outcome because we have a lot of work left to do". This will be reflected in import and export patterns around the globe. "US-China bilateral trade will decline and replaced by trade originating in other countries".
Of the more than $300bn of US-China trade that has been hit with additional tariffs since July, about $250bn could be captured by other economies, the United Nations estimates.
Although these figures don't represent a large slice of global trade - which was worth about $17 trillion in 2017 - for many countries they make up a substantial share of exports. They are also - as seems to nearly always be the case with the China trade conflict - embodied by soybeans. Pamela Coke-Hamilton of UNCTAD said the USA increasing tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 25% would be a "significant difference" that would have macroeconomic impacts around the globe, particularly with respect to instability in commodity and financial markets and global growth.
The proposed legislation would expand the White House's latitude to impose tariffs if other countries' tariffs or non-tariff barrier exceed U.S. ones. A common concern is the unavoidable impact that trade disputes will have on the still fragile global economy.
The China-driven rise in soybean prices in Brazil has also pushed up costs for local businesses that need to buy soybeans for animal feed and other uses. This is especially worrying if trade tensions spiral into currency wars, which would threaten the ability of people and companies around the world to pay off dollar-denominated debt, they said.
"Countries that are expected to benefit the most from U.S".
The trade war will also have a number of negative effects on global trade, especially within certain markets, the UNCTAD said.
Finally, in an interconnected global economy, the tit for tat moves of the trade giants are likely to have a domino effect beyond the countries and sectors targeted.
The report projects East Asian economies to be the biggest losers, with USA tariffs costing up to $160 billion in trade as the regional value chain shrinks. If they fail to reach an agreement before the deadline, the United States has threatened to hike tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%.
The new round of talks in Beijing, to be led by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, was earlier reported by the Wall Street Journal, citing an unidentified senior administration official.